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The quant desk for the US open — a live NVDA→US100 signal, 21-year seasonality odds, real-time prices, the IPOs reshaping NAS100, what the world's top investors are buying, and the power producers feeding the AI build-out. Data, not opinions.

Updated 29 Sept 2026Live · reload to refresh
01

Pre-Market Bias

NAS100 · 21-yr study
Greenest weekday
Mon (21y) / Wed (41y)
56.3% / 56.7% - window matters
Month ahead
September
57% green by count · avg -0.15%/mo · worst month of the year by avg return
This quarter
Q3 · Jul–Sep
68% avg monthly green odds · +3.71% avg quarter return
Best hour
18:00
56.6% green - 12.5y H1, 2 brokers
02

Tech & AI

8 names
SymbolLastΔ DayMkt Cap
SPCXSpaceX$148.53+2.10%$1.96T
NVDANVIDIA$229.36+0.22%$5.58T
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices$610.65+0.46%$1.01T
MUMicron Technology$1,067.70+1.30%$1.22T
WDCWestern Digital$449.80-0.76%$164B
INTCIntel$116.08+0.04%$625B
AVGOBroadcom$355.54+1.71%$1.72T
MRVLMarvell Technology$262.19+4.08%$235B
03

IPOs

Anthropic — weeks from the largest IPO in history
Prospectus expected after Labor Day · listing late Sep / early Oct 2026

Anthropic (maker of Claude) filed confidentially in June and, per The Information and Motley Fool, will publish its prospectus right after Labor Day for a late-September or early-October NASDAQ listing. Reported valuation targets range from ~$965B to $2T; either would eclipse SpaceX's June record. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan run the book. The deal may let existing holders sell into the IPO and carry a lock-up longer than the usual 180 days.

OpenAI — 'a public company in 2027' or sooner
Confidentially on file · CFO guides to 2027 · prediction markets agree

OpenAI filed confidentially in May at a valuation band of ~$852B to $1T+. In August, CFO Sarah Friar told employees the company 'will be a public company in 2027' or sooner and that it is 'running our own race' against Anthropic's fall debut. Polymarket odds of a 2026 listing collapsed on the comment. Still to finish: the ~$830B pre-IPO round and the conversion to a for-profit public benefit corporation.

SK hynix — SKHY trades on NASDAQ (live card above)
Listed Jul 10, 2026 · largest-ever US debut by a foreign company

The world's #2 memory maker (and ~60% of the HBM market) completed a ~$26.5B NASDAQ ADR listing, ahead of Alibaba's $21.8B in 2014. Shares rose 13% on day one and peaked near $195 in August. Proceeds fund the Yongin fab and advanced packaging. A direct NAS100-eligible rival for MU — the live price sits in the card above.

CXMT — the +466% debut that became China's most valuable stock
Listed Jul 27, 2026 · raised ¥57.9B (~$8.6B)

ChangXin Memory Technologies, China's only mass-production DRAM maker (#1 in China, #4 globally by capacity), soared ~466% on its STAR Market debut after raising ¥57.9B — Asia's biggest IPO of 2026 and enough to make it the most valuable company listed on mainland China. Not a NAS100 name, but the biggest supply-side threat to MU and SK hynix pricing. YMTC and UniIC are next in the pipeline.

SpaceX — the post-IPO stress test
Listed Jun 12, 2026 · trading well below its post-IPO high · lock-ups ahead

SpaceX nearly tripled the largest-ever IPO capital raise, then gave back a large slice of the pop (see the live SPCX card in the Tech & AI section for today's distance from the high). The staggered insider lock-up schedule is the next supply event to watch, along with index-inclusion flows and its first earnings as a public company.

04

Gurus

Q1 2026 13F
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway · $299B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: GOOGL $13B, GOOG $8.6B, DAL $2.7B, LEN $309M, NYT $170M.
Nancy Pelosi
US House (via spouse Paul Pelosi) · $8.2M–$28.4M disclosed in 2026 (16 trades)
Buying: Latest PTR (filed Aug 21, 2026, trades Jul 24, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026): BE stock $1M–$5M, BE calls $1M–$5M, BE stock $500K–$1M, BE calls $500K–$1M, INTC calls $250K–$500K, INTC stock $500K–$1M, REOF XXV, LLC $500K–$1M.
Cathie Wood
ARK Invest · $15B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: SPCX (new) $765M, CBRS (new) $169M, GOOG $162M, TEM $146M, CRCL $145M.
Michael Burry
Scion ('The Big Short') · $1.4B (Q3 2025 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q3 2025 buys vs Q2 2025: PLTR PUT (new) $912M, NVDA PUT (new) $187M, PFE CALL (new) $153M, HAL CALL (new) $62M, MOH (new) $24M.
Bill Ackman
Pershing Square · $14B (Q1 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q1 2026 buys vs Q4 2025: MSFT (new) $2.1B, AMZN $167M.
Stanley Druckenmiller
Duquesne Family Office · $5.2B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: NTRA $252M, INSM CALL (new) $144M, STM $142M, GOOGL (new) $120M, AMZN $120M.
David Tepper
Appaloosa Management · $7.7B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: TSM $339M, AMZN $292M, AAPL PUT (new) $242M, EWY $194M, BA (new) $173M.
Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates · $24B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: SPY $1.1B, IVV $498M, VOO $220M, VST (new) $119M.
George Soros
Soros Fund Management · $8.1B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: SMCI 7 06.01.29 (new) $111M, AEP (new) $105M, ETR (new) $105M, DLR (new) $97M, NEBIUS GROUP N.V. (new) $86M.
Ken Griffin
Citadel · $875B (Q2 2026 13F)
Buying: Biggest Q2 2026 buys vs Q1 2026: SPY CALL $18B, MU PUT $17B, MU CALL $13B, QQQ CALL $12B, IVV $11B.
05

Power & Nuclear

The grid behind the AI build-out
IPOs
SymbolLastΔ DayMkt Cap
SKHYSK hynix — NASDAQ ADR$186.59+2.57%$1.34T
688825.SSCXMT — ChangXin Memory$55.55+3.25%¥3.77T
Power
SymbolLastΔ DayMkt Cap
NEENextEra Energy$75.73+0.32%$158B
SOSouthern Company$82.81+0.56%$95B
CEGConstellation Energy$263.19+1.06%$94B
DUKDuke Energy$113.46+0.04%$88B
AEPAmerican Electric Power$118.35+0.13%$64B
Nuclear
SymbolLastΔ DayMkt Cap
OKLOOklo$36.99-0.32%$7B
SMRNuScale Power$7.83-1.07%$3.3B
NNENano Nuclear Energy$15.85-1.92%$874M
CCJCameco$86.38-0.76%$38B
NOPOLY.AI · Quant Easy · Data Sep 29, 2026 — auto-refreshed daily · Not investment advice