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The quant desk for the US open — a live NVDA→US100 signal, 21-year seasonality odds, real-time prices, the IPOs reshaping NAS100, what the world's top investors are buying, and the power producers feeding the AI build-out. Data, not opinions.

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Last updated 12 Jul 2026

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Section 01

Today's Pre-Market Checklist

About this section ▾

Three checks before the US open (20:30 Bangkok / 9:30 AM ET during DST). The live signal and today's odds update automatically; the prices across the page refresh on every load.

Live signalNVDA $198.95 +2.00%US100 bias: BUYNQ futures 28,404.25 +0.59%

NVDA (incl. pre/after-market) vs prior close $195.04 · as of 1 Aug, 06:59 Bangkok · market closed — showing last session · signal read 15:00 Bangkok, exit 17:00 server · reload to refresh

01Time Data Mining (TD) — NAS100 by the numbers21-41 yr study
  • The seasonality edge at a glance - calendar, intraday clock, and the April + July Super TD (TOP 3) view. Full tables on the Time Data Mining (TD) page.

Calendar bias — 21-yr

Greenest weekday

Mon (21y) / Wed (41y)

56.3% / 56.7% - window matters

Month ahead

August

62% green · 13/21 yrs

This quarter

Q3 · Jul–Sep

71% green · 15/21 yrs

Best intraday timing — server time

Best hour

18:00

56.6% green - 12.5y H1, 2 brokers

Best M15 candle

18:00

55.8% green (4.2y)

Avoid

17:45 (M15)

~55% red - the pre-18:00 dip

July, week by week

Strongest weeks

W1–2

71% green each

Weakest week

W5 · 29–31

57% red

2nd-weakest week

W3 · 15–21

57% green · softest green week

Super TD - April + July focus

Best hour (Apr+Jul)

18:00

59.3% green - stronger than all-year

Best M15 (Apr+Jul)

20:00

60.1% green

Greenest weekday

Wednesday

60.1% green in Apr+Jul

See the full 10-year tables on the Time Data Mining (TD) page →
02Time Data Mining (TD): green or red — the week aheadNext 7 days
August62% green13 / 21 years green · #5 of 12 by green odds
  • Historical green odds for each of the next 5 trading days (21-year NAS100 study).

July only — green odds by weekday (21-yr)

Mon

56.3%

43.7% red

Tue

57.8%

42.2% red

Wed

62.2%

37.8% red

Thu

50.6%

49.4% red

Fri

65.5%

34.5% red

Next 5 sessions — green odds

Mon 3 Aug

56.3%

green

Tue 4 Aug

54.7%

green

Wed 5 Aug

53.7%

green

Thu 6 Aug

53.4%

green

Fri 7 Aug

53.0%

green

03IPOs incoming — SK Hynix + Chinese semiconductorsPipeline
  • SK Hynix (SKHY): NASDAQ ~Jul 10, $29B ADR — largest ever. Watch MU/WDC.
  • CXMT: China's #1 DRAM — $4.4B STAR IPO cleared, Q1 rev +719%; YMTC/UniIC next.
  • Anthropic ~Oct (~$1T) · OpenAI leaning 2027. Full cards in the IPO section below.

Section 02

Tech & AI — Core

About this section ▾

Our core NAS100 tech basket: the chips, memory and storage that power AI data centers — plus SpaceX, the newest mega-cap in the index. These are the tickers we follow every trading day.

SPCX

SpaceX

$107.77

-3.95%
Market cap $1.43T · NASDAQ

Space Exploration Technologies — rockets, Starlink broadband, and the new Terafab chip-fabrication venture aimed at AI data centers in orbit. Went public June 12, 2026 in a record ~$85B IPO.

Now the 7th-largest company in the world, but trading ~30% below its post-IPO high above $225. Watch the staggered insider lock-up expiries — the first windows open soon.

NVDA

NVIDIA

$198.95

+2.00%
Market cap $4.86T · NASDAQ

Designs the GPUs and full-rack systems that train and serve nearly every frontier AI model, wrapped in the CUDA software moat that keeps customers locked in.

Still the world's most valuable company — but Apple is now within ~4% of overtaking it. Apple reports earnings July 30; that gap is the race to watch this month.

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

$472.12

-2.73%
Market cap $776B · NASDAQ

Nvidia's chief GPU rival. Instinct MI-series accelerators plus EPYC server CPUs give data centers a genuine second source for AI compute.

The 6-gigawatt Instinct partnership with OpenAI re-rated the stock from the mid-$100s to the mid-$500s. Analysts see it riding the shift to inference and agentic AI.

MU

Micron Technology

$812.48

-7.11%
Market cap $930B · NASDAQ

One of three DRAM makers on earth and a key HBM (high-bandwidth memory) supplier for AI accelerators. The memory supercycle made it a trillion-dollar company.

Earned a record $24.67 per share last quarter as DRAM/NAND prices surge. Management sees high-performance memory demand running hot through at least 2027 — some analysts now call for $2,000.

WDC

Western Digital

$537.00

+0.74%
Market cap $188B · NASDAQ

Hard drives and platform storage for hyperscale data centers. AI training and inference clusters need exabytes of storage — WDC sells the shelves it sits on.

Up ~8x from its 52-week low ($63.67 → $539) on the AI storage supercycle, but it fell nearly 10% in the latest AI-infrastructure sell-off — the highest-beta name on this list.

INTC

Intel

$89.23

-2.09%
Market cap $455B · NASDAQ

x86 CPUs, edge AI chips, and the only leading-edge foundry on US soil. The comeback story of the AI era — up ~6x from its 52-week low of $18.97.

Foundry momentum is real but external foundry revenue is still tiny ($174M) against a $2.4B segment loss — bears argue the valuation already prices in the turnaround.

AVGO

Broadcom

$387.45

-0.10%
Market cap $1.85T · NASDAQ

Builds custom AI accelerators (XPUs) for hyperscalers such as Google and Meta, plus the Ethernet networking silicon that stitches giant AI clusters together.

The main alternative to Nvidia at hyperscale — custom-chip orders from a handful of giant customers drive an enormous AI backlog.

MRVL

Marvell Technology

$185.58

+1.24%
Market cap $168B · NASDAQ

Custom AI silicon and optical/electrical interconnects — the data-center plumbing between accelerators, memory and storage.

Roughly 4x off its 52-week low on custom-silicon wins, but like WDC it dropped nearly 10% in the AI-infrastructure sell-off.

In the news

AI trade enters its stock-picking phase

Invesco's Fiona Lim argues the broad AI-fueled semiconductor rally is over: as capacity catches up with demand, profitability — not momentum — will separate winners from laggards. The early-July sell-off across AMD, MU, WDC and MRVL fits that script.

24/7 Wall Street / Invesco

Memory is the hottest corner of the market

Micron's record quarter ($24.67 EPS) plus SK Hynix's blockbuster NASDAQ listing plans confirm the memory supercycle: HBM for AI accelerators is sold out years ahead, and DRAM/NAND contract prices keep climbing.

Company reports

Apple closes in on Nvidia's crown

Nvidia's market value sits near $4.7T, only about $190B ahead of Apple. Apple reports July 30 — a catalyst that could hand the 'most valuable company' title back for the first time in years.

The Motley Fool

Section 03

IPO & Listing Watch

About this section ▾

The next wave of listings could reshape NAS100 itself. Two frontier AI labs are heading for NASDAQ, the world's #2 memory maker lists there this month, and China's DRAM champion is raising billions at home.

IPO — NASDAQ

Anthropic — the first $1 trillion debut?

Filed confidentially June 1 · targeting October 2026

Anthropic (maker of Claude) filed confidentially on June 1, 2026 and is tracking toward an October NASDAQ debut — potentially the first company ever to go public at a $1 trillion valuation. Run-rate revenue was ~$47B at filing, targeting $50B+ by end of July, with its first operating profit (~$559M) expected in Q2 2026.

Zacks / Barchart

IPO — delayed

OpenAI — leaning toward 2027

Filed June 2026 · now leaning 2027

OpenAI also filed confidentially in June 2026, initially eyeing late 2026 at close to $1T. Per Bloomberg (June 26), it is now leaning toward 2027 — citing market volatility and Sam Altman's hard floor of a $1T listing price. Annualized revenue passed $20B, but internal projections point to ~$14B of losses in 2026.

Bloomberg

Listing — NASDAQ · SKHY

SK Hynix — record $29B NASDAQ ADR, trading ~July 10

Filed · trading expected July 10, 2026

The world's #2 memory maker (and ~60% of the HBM market) is listing American Depositary Shares on NASDAQ under the symbol SKHY, raising ~$29.4B — the largest ADR listing in history, ahead of Alibaba's $21.8B in 2014. Proceeds fund the Yongin fab and advanced packaging. A direct new NAS100-eligible rival for MU.

CNBC

IPO — Shanghai STAR Market

CXMT — China's DRAM champion goes public

Passed listing review May 27 · awaiting CSRC registration

ChangXin Memory Technologies, China's only mass-production DRAM maker (#1 in China, #4 globally by capacity), cleared the STAR Market review and plans to raise ¥29.5B (~$4.4B) — potentially 2026's largest A-share IPO. Q1 revenue hit $7.4B, up 719% YoY. Not a NAS100 name, but the biggest supply-side threat to MU and SK Hynix pricing.

SCMP / DigiTimes

Post-IPO — NASDAQ · SPCX

SpaceX — the post-IPO stress test

Listed June 12, 2026 · lock-up expiries ahead

SpaceX nearly tripled the largest-ever IPO capital raise, then fell ~30% from its post-IPO high. The staggered insider lock-up schedule is the next supply event to watch, along with index-inclusion flows and its first earnings report as a public company.

The Motley Fool

Section 04

Top gurus — who's buying (and shorting)

About this section ▾

The world's most-watched investors — the headline names at a glance up top, then the full holdings breakdown below: what sits in each portfolio, what they are buying next, and what they are unloading. Sourced from Q1 2026 13F filings (as of March 31, filed May 15), congressional disclosures and fund trade reports — 13F data is always a quarter behind (Congress ~45-day lag).

Warren Buffett

$263B (13F)

Berkshire Hathaway · Chairman — Greg Abel took over as CEO Jan 1, 2026

Holdings: Top 5: Apple (AAPL), American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), Bank of America (BAC), Chevron (CVX). The portfolio was cut from 40 positions to just 26 in Q1 — the most aggressive single-quarter cleanup in years.

Buying → Alphabet (GOOGL +204%, plus a new GOOG position), Delta Air Lines (DAL, new), New York Times (NYT +199%), Lennar (LEN +43%).

Selling → Exited 16 positions entirely in Q1; trimmed Chevron (-35%) and slightly reduced Bank of America.

First 13F of the Abel era — the Alphabet add is the clearest signal of where the new regime is heading.

Nancy Pelosi

$8.9M traded in 2026

US House (via spouse Paul Pelosi) · The most-tracked congressional trader

Holdings: Big-tech heavy: NVDA, GOOGL, AVGO, AAPL, PANW and Vistra (VST) positions, largely held through long-dated call options.

Buying → May 29 disclosure: 200 Intel (INTC) calls, $50 strike, March 2027 expiry ($1-5M) — plus 200 Uber (UBER) calls with the same expiry.

Selling → January's ~$69M repositioning trimmed large big-tech equity positions and rolled the money into new call options.

Not running for re-election — disclosures stop in January 2027, so every remaining filing gets extra attention. The INTC calls landed before the stock's latest leg up.

Cathie Wood

~$16B

ARK Invest · Disruptive-innovation ETFs (ARKK / ARKW / ARKQ / ARKX)

Holdings: Flagship positions: Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), Palantir (PLTR), Robinhood (HOOD), CRISPR names — high-beta innovation across AI, crypto and genomics.

Buying → Snowflake (SNOW, ~$52M), Palantir (PLTR), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL) and Bullish — leaning harder into AI software + crypto infrastructure.

Selling → Roku (ROKU, ~$44M sold), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU).

Daily trade disclosures make ARK the fastest guru signal on this list — but also the noisiest.

Michael Burry

Undisclosed

Scion ('The Big Short') · Contrarian — currently the loudest AI bear

Holdings: Short the AI complex: NVDA (entered ~$198), Tesla (~$416), Micron (~$1,052), Caterpillar, Applied Materials, and the SOXX semiconductor ETF.

Buying → Adding to short positions — his latest Substack calls the semiconductor index trading 65% above its 200-day average 'only matched by the dot-com bubble in 2000… the beginning of the end.'

Selling → Nothing to sell — he no longer files 13Fs and discloses bets via Substack.

The direct counter-trade to almost every other investor on this page. If MU/NVDA break down, his entries mark the levels shorts defend.

Bill Ackman

$13.7B (13F)

Pershing Square · Concentrated activist — 11 positions, top 5 = 78%

Holdings: Brookfield (BN), Amazon (AMZN) and Uber (UBER) are the top three, alongside Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac.

Buying → Microsoft — a new $2.1B position added in May 2026.

Selling → Sold most of his Alphabet (GOOGL) stake to fund the Microsoft buy.

A rare Mag-7-for-Mag-7 swap: out of Google, into Microsoft — effectively a bet on Azure + OpenAI over Gemini.

Stanley Druckenmiller

$3.4B (13F)

Duquesne Family Office · Macro legend — never had a down year

Holdings: 70 positions after adding 31 new ones in Q1 — now tilted toward memory, storage and power for AI.

Buying → Broadcom (AVGO, largest buy), SanDisk (SNDK), Seagate (STX), Micron (MU) — a full memory/storage rotation — plus a $64M Bloom Energy (BE) bet.

Selling → Exited Alphabet (GOOGL) completely; closed 23 positions in total.

His rotation out of AI mega-caps into the memory supply chain matches exactly the MU/WDC theme in Section 02.

David Tepper

~$6B (13F)

Appaloosa Management · Distressed-to-macro — famous for bold concentrated bets

Holdings: Amazon (AMZN) is the top holding by a wide margin, alongside big tech and Chinese ADRs.

Buying → Nearly doubled the Amazon stake in Q1 — one of the most aggressive single-name adds among the mega funds.

Selling → Trimming around the edges of China exposure.

Tepper doubling AMZN while Druckenmiller exits GOOGL shows even the bulls disagree about which mega-cap wins AI.

Ray Dalio

$22.4B (13F)

Bridgewater Associates · World's largest hedge fund — systematic macro

Holdings: 993 positions — broadly diversified, but Q1 showed a decisive tilt into semiconductors.

Buying → NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM) — chips over software.

Selling → Exited or slashed enterprise software: Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW), Workday (WDAY), Adobe (ADBE).

The cleanest institutional expression of 'AI value is accruing to hardware, not SaaS'.

George Soros

$7.4B (13F)

Soros Fund Management · The man who broke the Bank of England — now a family office

Holdings: 242 positions; top holdings Amazon (AMZN), Electronic Arts (EA), NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC (TSM), Alphabet (GOOGL).

Buying → Leaning into AI mega-caps and semis — AMZN, NVDA and TSM all sit at the top of the book.

Selling → Rotating out of index hedges as positions get more concentrated.

Quietly one of the most AI-long portfolios among the old-guard macro names.

Ken Griffin

$618B (13F, incl. market-making)

Citadel · Multi-strategy giant + market maker

Holdings: 12,857 line items — headline positions are SPY/QQQ options structures, with large single-name books in TSLA and NVDA options.

Buying → Added ~$2.52B of Amazon (AMZN) — position now over $3.2B — and doubled the NVIDIA (NVDA) stake to nearly $4B.

Selling → Constant two-way flow — reads as inventory as much as conviction.

Caveat: Citadel's 13F mixes the hedge fund with Citadel Securities' market-making inventory, so single filings overstate 'conviction'. The AMZN/NVDA adds were flagged as genuine fund positions.

Section 05

Power Producers — Top 5 by Market Cap

About this section ▾

Grid access, not chips, increasingly decides where AI gets built. These are the five largest US-listed power producers by market capitalization — ranked #1 to #5.

1NEE

NextEra Energy

$87.20

-0.83%
Market cap $181B · NYSE

America's largest utility: Florida Power & Light plus the world's biggest renewables fleet. Signed clean-power partnerships with Google Cloud and Meta.

Announced a $67B all-stock merger with Dominion Energy — a deal analysts call a grab for the real AI-infrastructure prize: Dominion's Virginia data-center corridor, the densest in the world.

2SO

Southern Company

$94.40

+0.06%
Market cap $109B · NYSE

Southeast US utility giant. Operator of Vogtle Units 3 & 4 — the first newly built nuclear reactors in the US in decades.

A prime beneficiary of the data-center building boom across Georgia and the Southeast, with nuclear already in the generation mix.

3DUK

Duke Energy

$126.42

+0.12%
Market cap $98B · NYSE

One of the largest US electric utilities, serving the Carolinas, Florida and the Midwest, with a large regulated nuclear fleet.

Data-center interconnection requests across its Carolinas service area keep climbing — load growth is the core of its capital plan.

4CEG

Constellation Energy

$266.30

+1.04%
Market cap $94B · NASDAQ

Operator of the largest nuclear fleet in the United States — the purest big-cap way to own American nuclear power.

Restarting Three Mile Island Unit 1 under a 20-year deal with Microsoft; fresh license renewals at Dresden and Clinton will supply Walmart and Meta. Down ~25% YTD, which some analysts now call an attractive entry.

5AEP

American Electric Power

$128.16

+0.30%
Market cap $70B · NASDAQ

Owner of the largest electricity transmission system in the US, including the high-voltage 765kV backbone that giant AI campuses need.

Signing up gigawatts of new data-center load in Ohio and Texas — trading near its 52-week high.

In the news

NextEra + Dominion: a $67B AI power play

NextEra's all-stock acquisition of Dominion Energy would put it at the center of the AI power race — Dominion serves Northern Virginia's 'Data Center Alley', the largest concentration of data centers on the planet.

24/7 Wall Street / MarketBeat

Utilities outperform on the AI-power theme

On a day the AI chip complex sold off hard, the big regulated utilities (SO, DUK, AEP, EXC) all rallied 2-3% — the market is treating power producers as the defensive way to stay long the AI build-out.

Market action, Jul 2

Section 06

Nuclear — New Build, SMRs & Fuel

About this section ▾

Big Tech has decided nuclear is how it powers AI: Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta have all signed reactor deals. We track the next-generation reactor builders — and the uranium that fuels them.

OKLO

Oklo

$38.80

-5.58%
Market cap $6.8B · NYSE

Sam Altman-backed developer of the Aurora fast reactor, plus Oklo Isotopes. Signed a long-term clean-energy deal with Meta for nuclear powerhouses in Ohio.

The DOE approved the final safety analysis for its Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Texas — criticality targeted this month, which would make it Oklo's first reactor to go live. First Aurora powerhouse expected late 2027 / early 2028.

SMR

NuScale Power

$8.36

-2.79%
Market cap $2.9B · NYSE

The only US company with an NRC-certified small modular reactor design. First-mover advantage, but still no commercial reactor deployed.

Down ~75% in 12 months on slow commercialization and a shareholder suit over its ENTRA1 partnership. Next catalyst: a critical project update expected with early-August earnings.

NNE

Nano Nuclear Energy

$15.91

-4.62%
Market cap $854M · NASDAQ

Developer of portable micro-reactors (ZEUS and ODIN) targeting remote sites, military bases and — eventually — edge data centers.

The smallest and most speculative name on this list — a call option on the micro-reactor category.

CCJ

Cameco

$85.93

-2.61%
Market cap $38B · NYSE

The West's largest uranium producer, plus a stake in Westinghouse. Every reactor restart and new build ultimately buys its fuel.

The picks-and-shovels way to own the whole nuclear renaissance without betting on any single reactor design.

In the news

Oklo's first reactor goes live this month

The DOE approved the Documented Safety Analysis for Oklo's Groves Isotope Test Reactor under the Reactor Pilot Program, clearing the path to startup in July. It is an isotope test reactor, not a power plant — but it is the company's first operating reactor and a major de-risking milestone.

Business Wire / Barron's

Big Tech's nuclear shopping spree continues

Microsoft (Three Mile Island restart), Meta (Clinton + Oklo Ohio powerhouses), Walmart (Dresden) and Amazon/Google SMR deals keep stacking up — the AI theme and the nuclear theme are becoming the same trade.

Constellation / Meta / Microsoft

For research and education only — not investment advice.